More Listings. More Choice. More Negotiating Power for Buyers.

Is the Ottawa real estate market moving closer to a buyer’s market?

September delivered one of the clearest signals we’ve seen this year.

Home sales barely changed from August, but the number of properties coming onto the market jumped 38.1% in just one month.

That means significantly more homes were competing for essentially the same number of buyers.

And for anyone thinking about buying or selling a home in Ottawa, that matters.

Ottawa September 2026 — The Numbers

A total of 1,010 homes sold in September, only slightly higher than the 1,002 sales recorded in August but 6.6% lower than September 2025.

Normally, Ottawa sales decline between August and September. This year they actually edged up 0.8%.

At first glance, that sounds encouraging.

But the bigger story is what's happening with inventory.

Ottawa saw 2,927 new listings in September—a massive 38.1% increase from August. Active listings climbed to 4,813, up 7.9% from last September.

Months of inventory increased again, reaching 4.8 months, compared with 4.5 in August and just 3.5 in July.

Most importantly, the sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 34.5%.

Put simply, approximately one property sold for every three new listings entering the market. (Ottawa Real Estate Board)

🏡 My Take: The Balance of Power Is Shifting

This is where the statistics start matching what we're seeing on the ground.

Buyers have more properties to choose from.

They're taking more time.

They're comparing homes more carefully.

And when they do decide to write an offer, sellers should be prepared for buyers to negotiate.

That doesn't mean every seller should accept a low offer.

It means sellers need to understand that the negotiating environment has changed.

For sellers, simply putting a home on MLS® and waiting for buyers to compete is no longer enough.

Price, condition, presentation and marketing matter more when buyers have alternatives.

What About Ottawa Home Prices?

This is where September gets particularly interesting.

The average Ottawa sale price was $685,640, down just 1.0% from last September and almost unchanged from August.

The median price was $625,000, down only 0.8% year over year.

If you looked only at those two numbers, you might conclude that Ottawa home prices were basically holding steady.

But there's another number we need to watch.

The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark fell to $623,500, down 2.2% from August.

That was the largest August-to-September HPI decline in Ottawa's series going back to 2005.

Why the difference?

Average prices can change depending on the types of properties selling in any particular month. The HPI attempts to control for those differences by following a representative home with consistent characteristics.

So while average prices appear relatively stable, the HPI suggests there may be more underlying price softness than the headline average indicates.

One month does not establish a trend—but this is absolutely something I'll be watching in October and November. (Ottawa Real Estate Board)

Detached Homes, Townhomes & Condos Are Telling Different Stories

This is another reason I continually remind buyers and sellers:

There isn't one Ottawa real estate market.

Single-family homes recorded 535 sales, down 4.6% from last September. Their benchmark price was $705,100, almost unchanged year over year but down 3.0% from August.

Townhouses recorded 329 sales, down 3.5%. Their benchmark price was $546,500, down 2.2% year over year.

But the biggest pressure continues to be in the apartment condo market.

Only 121 apartments sold, a 24.8% decline from last year.

Apartment inventory reached 7.3 months, while the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to only 27%.

The apartment benchmark price dropped to $380,800, down 6.1% from September 2025. (Ottawa Real Estate Board)

For condo buyers, that could mean opportunities.

For condo sellers, pricing correctly from the beginning is becoming increasingly important.

📍 Ottawa's Suburbs Continue to Drive the Market

Ottawa's suburban communities accounted for 734 sales—or 72.7% of everything sold in September.

Ottawa Suburb West remained the strongest of the seven submarkets from an absorption perspective, recording 3.7 months of inventory.

By comparison, Ottawa Centre reached 6.8 months of inventory, while several rural markets were also above five or six months.

This is precisely why citywide averages don't tell you what your home is worth.

A detached home in Kanata can be experiencing very different conditions from a downtown condo, a Barrhaven townhouse or a rural property.

Real estate is becoming increasingly local—and increasingly property-specific. (Ottawa Real Estate Board)

What Does This Mean for Ottawa Buyers?

This market may be presenting buyers with something they haven't enjoyed consistently in years:

time and negotiating power.

More inventory can mean more selection, fewer situations where buyers feel pressured to make immediate decisions, and potentially greater flexibility on price and conditions.

That doesn't mean every seller is desperate or that every low offer will work.

The opportunity comes from identifying which properties have been sitting, which sellers may be motivated, where comparable sales support negotiation, and where competition remains strong.

What Does This Mean for Ottawa Sellers?

Sellers need to adjust to the market they're in—not the market they remember.

Homes sold for an average of 97.5% of asking price in September, while median days on market increased from 22 days last September to 27 days this year. (Ottawa Real Estate Board)

When inventory rises, buyers can compare your property against more alternatives.

That's why I believe the first few weeks of a listing are becoming even more important.

Overpricing a home doesn't necessarily cause buyers to negotiate. Sometimes it causes them to skip the property entirely.

Your listing needs to compete on:

Price. Presentation. Condition. Marketing.

Because sellers aren't just competing for offers anymore.

They're competing for the buyer's attention.

🏢 Don't Ignore What's Happening in Ottawa's Rental Market

There's another important piece of the puzzle.

CMHC says Ottawa's rental market is expected to continue softening as significant new rental supply reaches completion. Its more recent research also shows that purpose-built rentals now dominate Ottawa's construction pipeline—54% of 2026 housing starts were rentals, compared with only 12% for condominium apartments. (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Those rental units aren't directly adding homes to the resale market.

But they could still influence housing decisions by giving renters more options and potentially changing the urgency some renters feel to become homeowners.

🔮 Where Does Ottawa Real Estate Go From Here?

October and November will be very important.

Historically, new listings tend to decline as Ottawa moves deeper into the fall.

So the question is:

Was September's surge in listings temporary—or are we entering a longer period of elevated inventory?

I'll be watching three numbers very closely:

Sales-to-new-listings ratio. Months of inventory. MLS® HPI benchmark price.

If inventory remains elevated while absorption stays weak and the HPI continues declining, we'll have stronger evidence that Ottawa is experiencing a broader adjustment.

If listings decline seasonally and buyers begin absorbing more inventory, the market could begin balancing again.

CMHC's current Ottawa outlook expects sales to stabilize, but says greater supply and slower demand growth should limit price increases. TD Economics is forecasting Ontario existing-home prices to average 2.6% lower in 2026 before modest 0.6% growth in 2027, while RBC's national outlook similarly anticipates only a gradual recovery. (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

🏡 Franco's Pro-Tip

Buyers: Don't confuse a slower market with permission to lowball every property. Use the additional inventory to identify where you actually have negotiating leverage.

Sellers: Don't chase yesterday's market. Your first asking price may be one of the most important marketing decisions you make.

And whether you're buying or selling, don't make your decision based solely on the Ottawa-wide average.

Your neighbourhood, property type, price range and competition determine your real market.

Thinking about buying or selling in Ottawa?

I'd be happy to provide you with a complimentary home evaluation or neighbourhood market report so you can see exactly what's happening in your part of the city.

I'm Franco Ippolito with eXp Realty at BuyOttawa.com.

Knowledge builds confidence. Confidence leads to better real estate decisions.